UTEP Game Preview
Despite only a handful of meetings, the Texas football series with UTEP goes back longer than you think. Photo: Chris Kominczak, Daily Texan
Outlook
Let’s run it back! Week 3 for the Longhorns should look a lot like week 2. Just with some different colors on the opposing uniforms. And a little bit warmer weather.
Texas returns right back to DKR to face UTEP for part 2 of the 3-week home stretch. Texas leads the official all-time series 4-0, dating back to 2008. However, there were two matchups won by the Longhorns in the 1930s against the Texas State School of Mines and Metallurgy. Call it 6-0 Texas in the series. The Horns are coming off a 38-7 win over San José State last week in Austin to improve to 1-1 on the year, and the UTEP Miners took home a 42-17 win over UT Martin (of the University of Tennessee system) to also sit 1-1.
The Longhorns have several starters being withheld from the game, largely precautionary due to the opponent. It’ll be interesting to see how that impacts the game, and should be another great opportunity for some of the young players on the roster to see significant playing time.
The game will be played in DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday at 3:15pm CDT in Austin, Texas, and will be televised on SEC Network. The Longhorns are favored by 40.5 points, with the over/under set at 51.5.
Excited to see some more home cooking for the burnt orange and white!
Texas Offense vs. UTEP Defense
Arch Manning had a much improved game against San José State, accounting for 318 yards and 5 touchdowns. Photo: Getty Images
Texas certainly showed off a few more explosive plays last week, and more and more fans and getting familiar with star-in-the-making Parker Livingstone. Expect him to continue to make big plays for the Horns’ offense this week and for Arch to look for him early and often. The tight ends turned in a great week as well, however it looks as though starter Jack Endries will be held out of this week’s contest, meaning we’ll see a lot more of Jordan Washington and Emaree Winston. In the run game, starter Tre Wisner is out again, so it’ll be Baxter and a committee of Christian Clark, Gibson, and freshman James Simon in the mix. I suspect we will see more of a commitment to establish the run, and look for Sark to use that to fuel the play action pass game (an area of weakness for Arch Manning thus far).
UTEP’s defense ranks around 90th in the nation through 2 games - and those are games against Utah State and Tennessee-Martin. Hmmm. Suspect to say the least. Though, they actually lead the nation in tackling, sacks, and are 2nd in tackles for loss. The weakness for the Miners’ defense is in allowing explosive plays, specifically through the air. It’s a very tall task, but we did see San José State play a pretty good game and hold Texas to just 38 points last week. I don’t know if UTEP will be able to replicate that performance, and a lot of that will fall on the game plan and execution from coach Sarkisian and the Longhorn offense.
Advantage: Texas
Texas Defense vs. UTEP Offense
The Longhorns defense will look to repeat their effort this week, having come away with 4 turnovers against SJSU. Photo: ESPN
As expected, the Longhorn defense dominated San José State, collecting 4 turnovers and not allowing the Spartans to pose any real threat for the game. Interestingly, though, they did rack up 16 first downs and held the ball for nearly 30 minutes of game time. I think this defense can tighten things up even a little more against UTEP, and we’d still like to see more out of our vaunted pass rush unit. Holding the Miners below 100 rushing yards should be the standard for this group, and how about not letting the opponent haul in a SportsCenter Top 10 highlight catch. I’m still calling for a shutout this season, but I don’t know if this will be the one, as a talented player will lead the UTEP offense on Saturday.
As mentioned, UTEP is led by third year sophomore quarterback Malachi Nelson - a highly touted prospect out of high school. He was a 5-star recruit initially committed to Oklahoma, having followed Lincoln Riley to USC and at one time was the #1 rated recruit in the nation by some. Nelson hasn’t quite found a college football home, having transferred from USC to Boise State, and now residing in El Paso. But he has put up good numbers this year, having nearly identical totals to Arch Manning through 2 games. Still, the Miners rank in the bottom half of FBS teams in both passing and rushing this season. I wouldn’t put it past them to come up with a couple scoring drives, but I could also see the Texas pass rush creating havoc, and the secondary taking advantage to make for a long day for Nelson and Co.
Advantage: Texas
Coaching
Coach Scotty Walden is in his 2nd season with the Miners, going 3-9 last season. Photo: Angelina Alcantar, USA Today
Make it 28-1 for Coach Sarkisian against opponents not named Georgia, Ohio State, and Washington in the last 35 games or so. That’ll go to 29-1 shortly. I believe Sark is managing the roster well given the nature of the schedule right now - not letting important players sustain longer term injuries than they need to, and allowing new guys to get quality game reps. One area that’s been a focus of many Texas fans that I believe stems from coaching is penalties. Now, there are penalties that will naturally occur from playing hard and putting in flat out effort. There are others that are just unnecessary and should not be happening. It starts with cleaning up the penalties in a game like this where you really don’t need to be doing anything over the top to win, and I will be monitoring that aspect of the game closely this week.
UTEP is coached by Scotty Walden. He is in his 2nd year with the Miners after going 3-9 in his first season last year. He previously was the head coach at Austin Peay, so this is his first foray into head coaching at the FBS level. He sports a 38-30 overall record as a head coach. Walden is still a young coach in the sport, but he’s been around since 2016 when he became the youngest HC in all of college football at age 26. Landing Malachi Nelson at UTEP is certainly a good mark for him.
Advantage: Texas
The Model
Introducing a new matchup preview this week - a statistical breakdown and predictive model of the game, courtesy of Burnt Orange Kool-Aid contributor Travis David. Looks like the model is calling for a similar outcome as we saw last week against San José State. Let’s give it a little more positive data on the offensive side, shall we?
You can check out Travis’s predictive modeling of college football at his Substack: travismdavid.substack.com
Advantage: Texas
Prediction
Expect more of the same from the burnt orange and white as we saw last week. It’d be a borderline crime if UTEP eclipses 14 points in this one, and the same for Texas to be south of 40 again. I’m bullish on the offense to get off to a better start, and to be able to control the game on the ground in the second half (yes, I’ll keep saying this until it happens). Horns hook the Miners but fail to cover the 40.5. Under ‘til we die.
Score prediction: Texas 41, UTEP 3
Hook ‘em
