Sam Houston Game Preview
Texas is set to play its first night game of the season, hosting Sam Houston on Saturday. Photo: University of Texas Athletics
Outlook
Finally, DKR under the lights in 2025.
Texas is set to finish off its home stand as it welcomes the Sam Houston State Bearkats to Austin. The Longhorns lead the all-time series 1-0, picking up a 56-3 win in 2006 when Sam Houston was still at the FCS level (the last time the Horns have scheduled an FCS opponent, by the way). Texas comes in off the back of a 27-10 win over UTEP, having improved to 2-1 on the year. Sam Houston is 0-3 with losses to Western Kentucky, UNLV, and Hawaii.
The key to this game for most fans will be seeing Texas try to piece together a complete and resounding performance over an extremely outmatched opponent. And we’re all excited to see that drone show at night for the first time this year.
The game will be played in DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday at 7:00pm CDT in Austin, Texas, and will be viewable on ESPN+ and SEC Network+. The Longhorns are favored by 39.5 points, with the over/under set at 51.5.
Texas Offense vs. Sam Houston Defense
Arch Manning celebrates with Trevor Goosby after a rushing score against UTEP. Photo: Tim Warner, Getty Images
Much has been said about the Texas offense, especially the quarterback, and I won’t continue to beat a dead horse. It’s time to focus on what’s next, and what could be for this offense. Reports are that starting WR DeAndre Moore will return for this game, giving Manning an added weapon and security blanket, through a player he had good chemistry with last season. Between Moore, Wingo, and Livingstone, Arch should have plenty of mid-range and downfield threats open this game - if we see good timing and route running by those guys, it could be an explosive day for the passing game. On the ground, the Longhorns will be without their top 2 running backs in Wisner and Baxter, so will be relying on Christian Clark, Jerrick Gibson, and true freshman James Simon to shoulder the load. Sam Houston presents a great opportunity for these young guys to get a lot of reps, and for the offensive line to show their strength and develop cohesion. Look for a balanced attack, depending on the looks the defense chooses to show.
Sam Houston, we have a problem. On defense (and offense). The Bearkats rank near the bottom of FBS in defensive stats, having given up nearly 39 points per game. They’re also allowing 442 yards per game against them, the majority through the air. Their strong point would be run defense, where the ‘Kats actually rank in the top half of college football. Overall, though, it’s been pretty bleak on the defensive side. If it’s ever gonna happen for the Longhorns, it would be this game. Stoppable force, meet movable object!
Advantage: Texas
Texas Defense vs. Sam Houston Offense
Texas recorded another two interceptions against UTEP - look for more to come on Saturday night. Photo: University of Texas Athletics
The Longhorn defense is in midseason form already. At all three levels of the defense, Texas is performing extremely well with production by its veterans and newcomers alike. They’re also limiting opponents in terms of yardage total, playing great in red zone and third down situations, and starting to rack up the turnovers. If there’s anything that leaves more to be desired, it’s that the pass rush has not been as dominant as advertised. The group as a whole has recorded just 6 sacks now through 3 games, good for 65th in the nation, or right about average. In fact, you could argue that the Longhorn interior has been a much better group than the edge rushers thus far, and who saw that coming? It’s certainly something to keep an eye on as we get closer to conference play. But again, with how strong the Texas defense as a whole has looked, we’re nitpicking.
Things don’t get much better for the Sam Houston offensive side of the ball. Their starting quarterback is Hunter Watson, a senior out of Celina, Texas. He is averaging only about 150 passing yards per game, and has yet to throw a touchdown pass this season (he has one INT). Watson is also the leading rusher for the Bearkats, at just over 100 yards total. Hey, that’s something he has in common with the Longhorn QB. Now, Texas is dealing with running back injuries so they’ve got the yards spread out among 6-7 guys. It’s worth noting that Watson missed the Kats’ most recent game, but is set to return on Saturday. The run game is not good, but it is slightly better than their passing game. However, I would expect the Longhorn interior to completely shut down the ground game once again.
Advantage: Texas
Coaching
Sam Houston Coach Phil Longo is in his 1st season as head coach with the Bearkats, having spent 3 seasons as their OC previously. Photo: Sarah Bautista, Daily Texan
It’s time to be patient and have a little faith in Coach Sark. It has only been 3 games after all, and there’s a long (long) way to go this season. We have to believe that he will get things right on the offensive end, at least to a level that is acceptable for the standard we hold as fans. Because with this defense, it doesn’t have to be anything crazy on the offensive side. But it has to be better than what we’ve seen. I’m predicting a marked improvement this week. Another thing to watch for is penalties, because that can be a sign of a lack of discipline among the players. Texas is among the worst teams in all of FBS, racking up 8 penalties and 81 yards per game. We need to see that get cleaned up. I expect these will be the most heavily focused areas for Sark this past week.
Sam Houston is coached by Phil Longo, in his first season as their head coach. He previously spent three seasons with the Bearkats as their offensive coordinator, from 2014-2016. Longo was actually a head coach in 2004-2005 at La Salle, before that program went defunct in 2007. Overall he has a 7-17 record as a head coach. This is a fairly new FBS program, and it’s an extremely tough rebuilding job. Unfortunately, Longo will not be getting his first victory with the Bearkats just yet.
Advantage: Texas
The Model
Our model this week is taking a wait and see approach with the Texas offense. And who can blame it. Curious about that projected point total for the Bearkats, though. Factoring in another garbage time score, perhaps? Surely the Longhorns can kick things into gear and make the model look silly this week.
You can check out Travis’s predictive modeling of college football at his Substack: travismdavid.substack.com
Advantage: Texas
Prediction
Last week, I said it would be a crime for Texas to score under 40. They didn’t even eclipse 30 - lock up the offensive staff, right? Well, let’s say I’m letting them off with a warning. This week, however, it would be truly unacceptable to have a repeat performance. This will be Arch Manning’s best game to date this season, and he’ll find Wingo and Livingstone for scores. Still, it’s hard to say things are going to change drastically. Prove me wrong! Now, the other side of the ball is where the fun happens. Give me the shutout.
Score prediction: Texas 34, UTEP 0
Hook ‘em
