Kentucky Game Preview
Tre Wisner had a big game last year against the Wildcats - he’ll look to build on both that success and the Red River game. Photo: Kennedy Weatherby, The Daily Texan
Outlook
We’re having fun now, right?!
It’s game 3 in the SEC for Texas, as the Longhorns visit Kentucky for the first time since joining the league. The Horns are now 1-1 in conference play after their 23-6 smothering of Oklahoma, and sit 4-2 on the season. Kentucky comes into the game without a conference win, but fresh off a bye, sitting 2-3 overall with an 0-3 SEC record. The teams have met just twice, in 1951 and last year’s 31-14 Longhorn victory in Austin, as Texas leads the all-time series 2-0.
In truth, Kentucky is the worst team in the SEC right now. That is not saying as much as it did a few years ago, as it’s a much more competitive conference top to bottom, and it feels like anybody can beat anybody on a given Saturday. This is one of the more lopsided matchups the conference will see, however, but we’re still not seeing 20 and 30 point lines. The home crowd should play a factor for the Wildcats, and may help them to keep this closer on the scoreboard than it will feel like. Texas may have other ideas, however.
The game will be played at Commonwealth Stadium on Saturday at 6:00pm CDT in Lexington, Kentucky, and will be televised on ESPN. The Longhorns are favored by 13.5 points, with the over/under set at 43.5.
Texas Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
Tre Wisner came up huge for the Longhorns in Dallas once again. Photo: Sam Hodde, Getty Images
Things are starting to look up for this offense, and let’s hope the second half of that Red River win are a sign of things to come, specifically for the offensive line. In terms of ranks, Texas is now in the top half of college football, but only just, as it comes to overall offense. The rushing stats are slightly ahead of our passing for the season, but there has been improvement in both. Another big area of improvement was in third down conversions, where the Longhorns converted 10/17 against the Sooners. That will have to continue in order to help out the efficiency of this still developing group. Arch Manning is coming off perhaps his best game as a Texas Longhorn - though he didn’t have flashy stats, he managed the game extremely well and had several key throws and third down conversions, and notably no turnovers. We will need Arch to build off of that performance and show more poise in a road environment than he did in Gainesville. The health of the Texas running backs will still be a major concern going forward, as Tre Wisner looked like he was just about ready to collapse by the end of the last game, and is still likely dealing with a nagging hamstring issue. Look for Sark to open up the passing game a bit more to take some pressure off of Wisner, against a porous Wildcat secondary.
As mentioned, Kentucky really struggles to defend the pass, ranking 112th in yards per game there. Overall, they’re 109th in total defense and 96th in scoring defense. They also struggle to get many sacks or tackles for loss. Ultimately, there is a lot of hay to be made for the Texas offense in this one. The Horns struggled offensively in road environments twice this year, but both of those teams are really talented defensive groups. There would really be no excuse for this one.
Advantage: Texas
Texas Defense vs. Kentucky Offense
The Texas secondary enjoyed a great day against Oklahoma, gathering 3 INTs of QB John Mateer. Photo: SEC Sports
Coming off a resounding bounce-back performance, the Longhorn defense has its swagger back. And that’s a very bad sign for our opponents. People named Cutter Boley or Zach Calzada are absolutely shaking in their boots right now. Hell, even opposing running backs, wide receivers, and linemen are sweating facing down this defense. With 3 more takeaways and 5 sacks added to the tally against the Sooners, they delivered a vintage game particularly in the second half, shutting out OU for the last 39 minutes. The return of Manny Muhammad was key for the secondary, and emotional team leader Michael Taaffe played one of his best games in a Longhorn uniform, going out with back-to-back Red River wins. Colin Simmons, Brad Spence, and the rest of the pass rush started to get things going as well. They’ll be fired up for this one, and look for another dominating display and potentially a defensive score from the Longhorns.
The Kentucky offense is…not good. They rank 111th in the nation in total offense, and 116th in passing yards per game. Their best quality is in the run game, ranking just in the top half of FBS - that’s not a good sign going against this Texas rush defense. They’ve limited sacks and tackles for loss decently well - and that about does it for the positives. The Wildcats are “led” by redshirt freshman QB Cutter Boley. So far this season he’s got 4 TDs to 3 INTs, and a 39.5 QBR good for 114th in the nation. If he doesn’t work out, they can turn to Texas A&M transfer Zach Calzada, but the production likely won’t get any better. The running back room is a bit better, starting with Seth McGowan. Wait, the one from Oklahoma? Yep, the Mesquite, TX native is in his super (super) senior season now after a brief stint at New Mexico State. Potentially even more motivation for the Longhorns’ front seven. Can’t wait.
Advantage: Texas
Coaching
The Mark Stoops experiment may have run its course at Kentucky. Photo: The Athletic
Great news as Steve Sarkisian moves to 3-2 in Red River and 3-1 against Brent Venables. Notably, he also sports the best overall record of any SEC coach since 2023 still. Let’s keep that momentum going. After suffering his first SEC road loss last time out, Sark looks to pick up his first road victory of this 2025 season and get the Horns on a winning streak. You can tell coach Sark is so invested in the success of his players and this team, and really wants them to improve week-to-week. We have seen just that with a few position groups. A greater task for a coach might be to get his team up after an emotional win a week prior, and not anything derail the positive vibes - while also hammering home the areas of growth that are needed. That’s what is facing Sark coming into not just this game but a back-to-back road test against lesser SEC opponents.
Kentucky is coached by Mark Stoops, in his 13th (really??) season with the Wildcats. Stoops has the ‘Cats 2-3 this year after a 4-8 record last season. That makes for a 69-76 overall record for 12 seasons and change. Big yikes. Still, it’s not a football school, so anything around .500 is probably fine. But you don’t like to see things regressing if you’re a Kentucky fan, and after a couple 10 win seasons and some bowl wins, they’ve been on a downward slide the last 3-4 years. It may be time for the axe to fall, and given the ever-growing nature of the college football coaching carousel this year, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Stoops go. No debate at all here, Texas has the better coach.
Advantage: Texas
The Model
We like what we’re seeing out of the model lately, as it correctly called the Oklahoma win and cover. That’s now 5 out of 6 games this year where the model has gotten the spread right, at least. If that continues this week, some fans may be surprised to see a tight game in Lexington come Saturday night. Let’s please make this 5 out of 7, guys.
You can check out Travis’s predictive modeling of college football at his Substack: travismdavid.substack.com
Advantage: Texas
Prediction
Riding the wave of momentum from big D, I see the Longhorns putting this one to bed relatively early. The talent gap here is so much wider than even the Florida game, it’s extremely hard to envision this one going south. Dominate at both lines of scrimmage, and manage the game while opening up a few explosives - seems like a simple recipe. Give me Texas, big. We sneak under the 43.5 total as well. Because of course. Let’s pick up a road win!!
Score prediction: Texas 31, Kentucky 10
Hook ‘em
