Florida Game Preview
Texas is set to play its first night game of the season, hosting Sam Houston on Saturday. Photo: University of Texas Athletics
Outlook
Welcome to conference play!
A little over a month into the season, and the Longhorns are finally set to open the account on the SEC schedule in 2025. Much remains uncertain about this Texas team, seeing as it is the only one of the 16 in the SEC to have not played another conference foe up to this point. Not only that, but the Horns also play their first four SEC games away from the friendly confines of Austin, Texas. Starting with this week - on the road in Gainesville, FL to face the Florida Gators. The Longhorns have never lost to Florida, leading the all-time series 3-0-1 (that number reads like a European Ryder Cup record…not over that one just yet) with last year’s 49-17 victory in Austin being the only meeting between the schools played after 1940 (we should’ve met for the national championship in 2008…sigh). The Longhorns are 3-1 this season with their lone loss coming to #1 Ohio State, and the Gators are 1-3 with their lone win coming against Long Island (the school, not the island. Could Florida even beat a whole island this year?) back in week 1.
We’re all eager to see how the Longhorns respond in their second true road environment of the season, in a game that has lost quite a bit of the promise it showed in the preseason, largely due to Florida’s downward slide. Will this be the beginning (end?) of the end for Billy Napier in Gainesville, or will the Gators put everything together and give Texas all they can handle? I’m banking on the former, but I’m also calling this a must win game for the Horns.
The game will be played in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday at 2:30pm CDT in Gainesville, Florida, and will be televised on ESPN. The Longhorns are favored by 5.5 points, with the over/under set at 42.5.
Texas Offense vs. Florida Defense
Arch Manning cashes in his second rushing score of the night against Sam Houston. Photo: Mikala Compton, Austin American-Statesman
One-third of the way through the 2025 season, and Texas is still searching for its offensive identity. Granted, the Longhorns have only played one power 4 opponent, but they failed to establish any sort of consistency in that game. It’s possible that starting RB Tre Wisner returns for this one, which would be a huge boost for the run game. CJ Baxter is doubtful to return. Given the weather forecast (high winds and heavy rain), I expect the Horns to lean on the run game and establish a power run, ball control offense to keep the Gators at bay (no pun intended). That said, Arch Manning will play a crucial role for the Texas offense, both on the ground and through the air. We’ll need him to be sharp and confident in his throws, reads, and decisions, and to take care of the football. He does get back one his weapons on the outside in transfer WR Emmett Mosley. Here’s hoping he and Arch can get on the same page from jump. I really think if Manning can just manage the game well and limit negative plays or turnovers, Texas should be fine in this one given its edge on the other side of the ball. That may be a big “if”.
Defensively for the Gators, things are good. Considering the ineptitude of their offense early on, and the propensity for turnovers by the quarterback, the defense has held up quite well. They rank in the top 20-30 in the nation in most major defensive categories, with their strongest areas being first downs allowed and explosive plays allowed. It’s a defense that will force you to drive the length of the field to score, much like the Texas defense. The match up here is strength on weakness, though we’ll have to see how both coaching staffs game plan for the other and whether the Longhorns can find the same rhythm they had against Sam Houston (unlikely).
Advantage: Florida
Texas Defense vs. Florida Offense
Longhorns’ DB Jelani McDonald has been a key piece to the defense this year, leading the team with 2 INTs. Photo: Sara Diggins, Austin American-Statesman
What more can be said about this Texas defense? Given every opponent in front of them, they have completely locked down the opposition and have allowed just four touchdowns all season. Star players are emerging at every level of the defense, and the depth of contributors is staggering. The Longhorns rank in the top 10 in most statistical categories, including top 3 in rush defense and points allowed, and they have the #4 defense in yards allowed. Their weakest points thus far are in tackles for loss and sacks, and it may just be a matter of time for those stats to start racking up as well. This is the unit that will win Texas football games in 2025. And I like to think it will win a large number of them.
What’s that smell? Oh, we’ve arrived at the Florida offense. This has been an utter disaster, no two ways about it. QB DJ Lagway has shown little to no progression as a passer, and is giving the ball away like candy - accounting for 6 INTs to just 5 TD passes thrown. He has also been sacked 9 times, and totals just 23 rushing yards for the season on 26 carries. It doesn’t get any better for the Gator run game, where they rank 107th in the nation with just 123 yards per game on the ground. Yuck! Unless things magically turn around for Lagway and this offense, or Tim Tebow himself suits up, things are going to get really ugly in the Swamp.
Advantage: Texas
Coaching
The wheels have come completely off the track for Billy Napier at Florida. Photo: Sam Navarro, Imagn Images
So, how are we feeling about Steve Sarkisian this year? It’s been a mixed bag for sure, but it’s still way too early to tell what the season will bring and how Sark should be judged for it. One thing we do know, is that under Sark, Texas has typically been a very good road team. They’ve only lost one true road game dating back to 2022, and that was the one earlier this year in Columbus. In conference, Sark’s teams have been undefeated on the road the last two years, though none of them particularly convincing - there hasn’t been a road win for Texas by over 10 points since a 38-6 win at Baylor in September of 2023. Will this be the week to break that streak? It’s certainly a good candidate. I hope that Sark can come in prepared after the bye week and have a smart game plan for the Gators that limits our potential for mistakes. We’d also like to see the penalties be cleaned up as well.
Florida is coached by Billy Napier, in his fourth season with the Gators. After the miserable 1-3 start to the season, Napier now sports a 20-22 overall record as the UF head coach. He previously enjoyed success with Louisiana, guiding them to a 40-12 record with three 10-win seasons. Oh how fast they fall. It’s widely expected that Billy will not survive this season with Florida and will be looking for a new coaching job in the very near future. Maybe he can thrive again coaching a group of 6 school, or as a coordinator at a power 5. It is just not working out at Florida.
Advantage: Texas
The Model
Oh my. Our model this week favors Texas by less than half a point - giving a rather large home field advantage to the Gators. I suppose they are more accustomed to playing in swampy conditions. The model has been correct on the spread so far in 75% of Texas’ games in 2025 - so perhaps look for a less than one score game here for the Longhorns. I’m just not sure if the model knows just how bad the Gators have been this season.
You can check out Travis’s predictive modeling of college football at his Substack: travismdavid.substack.com
Advantage: Texas
Prediction
Listen, I really like the Horns’ chances this week. And sure, I like their chances every week. That said, I am nervous that Florida is a wounded animal with a lot of preseason hype and a talented roster just waiting to explode. This can’t be the week that it clicks, right? Well, even if it were, with how good this Texas defense is, I don’t see it mattering. I like our chances to smother Lagway and the Gators for all four quarters. Manning and the run game do just enough for Texas as we stiff arm them with ball control offense in the second half. Don’t overthink it, and take the under.
Score prediction: Texas 20, Florida 13
Hook ‘em
