Vanderbilt Game Preview
The MVP for Texas in 2025, Ryan Niblett saved the Horns once again in Starkvile. Photo: ESPN
Outlook
What a strange, strange season!
The Longhorns somehow, some way, managed to save their season once again, pulling out a 45-38 victory in overtime over Mississippi State last week, to improve to 6-2 on the season and on a 3-game winning streak. More on that below. Vanderbilt sits at 7-1 and in the AP top 10, after narrowly hanging on (by half a yard) to beat Missouri 17-10 last week. Vandy leads the all-time series 8-4-1, with only one meeting occurring after 1928 - a 27-24 Texas win last season in Nashville.
This game looks a bit different than many thought it might. The top 10 team in this matchup is Vanderbilt, and Texas is barely top 20. You would have to say the teams are very evenly matched, on the totality of talent and results on the field this year. Certainly not a game I would have pegged as a difficult one for Texas prior to the season. Credit to Vandy and coach Clark Lea, as they have taken a step forward from their breakthrough season a year ago, rather than coming back to reality. This will be a tight one (I think).
The game will be played at Darrell K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday at 11:00am CDT in Austin, Texas, and will be televised on ABC (though likely not by YouTube TV…). The Longhorns are favored by 3.5 points, with the over/under set at 47.5.
Mississippi State Recap
The unthinkable played out on the field in Starkville, MS last Saturday. First of all, Texas going down by 17 points on multiple occasions late in the game was quite unexpected. The defense having their worst game of the season was quite unexpected. And still, Texas rallying to tie the game and eventually win in overtime after all of that was, quite unexpected.
Several key moments happened in that 4th quarter that may possibly define the Longhorns’ season. First, Mississippi State had stopped Texas on a 4th and 1 attempt with a 17 point lead and only around 10 minutes to go, but were flagged for a warranted late hit on Arch Manning. Season alive. Next, the now famous Ryan Niblett punt return touchdown to tie the game with under 2 minutes to play. Unreal stuff, and the third game in a row Niblett has quite possibly won the game for the Horns. When will teams stop kicking to this guy in the 4th quarter?? Hopefully never. The next critical sequence for this Texas football season came in the overtime period, when Arch converted a first down on the ground but suffered a concussion. Matthew Caldwell stepped in and delivered the winning touchdown pass on a picture perfect fade route to Emmett Mosley in the corner.
Now, what this means for the Longhorns going forward is unclear, as Manning remains in concussion protocol and is questionable to start Saturday. Should he be good to go, I would be nervous about the chances of further head injuries for the rest of the season if he plays. If Caldwell is the guy at least for this week, it brings up a whole new set of questions for the Longhorn offense. In the interest of not playing out hypotheticals, we’ll just see how it shakes out on Saturday. But the point remains likely the most critical for the future of the 2025 Texas Longhorn football season.
All I’m asking for is a stress-free victory for Texas. Given the rest of this year’s schedule, that may really be a pipe dream. But I can dream.
The Matchups: Texas vs. Vanderbilt
Yeah, just go ahead and throw out everything I said about running the ball. Air it out, baby!! Now, obviously the circumstances of the game dictated the plan in the second half in Starkville, but Arch Manning had a career high in passing yards and was able to unleash several successful downfield balls in that game. A funny stat this season is that when Texas falls behind by multiple scores, the offense would rate right around #1 in the country in efficiency and output, and in all other scenarios we are about the 90th or 100th best offense. Maybe the game plan really has been wrong all along. Or, more likely, when the Horns are able to go up tempo and facing defenses trying to prevent the big play, they’ve been able to pick up big chunks. And that’s not where Sark would like the offense to live for the majority of games, in order to preserve our top unit which is the defense. And I get it, but the ball control strategy has been quite ineffective with our lack of running output in the vast majority of games. It worked for the Oklahoma game, and I know we’re probably going to try it again against Vandy, but man it was nice scoring some points. Whether it’s Manning or Caldwell, the Longhorn offense will try to dictate the game and protecting the ball will be critical - looking for another huge showing out of notable big game hunter Tre Wisner. Vanderbilt is a quality defense, particularly against the run. They’re a top 25 scoring defense in college football, and get after opposing quarterbacks well, being top 20 in sacks and TFLs. Vandy is vulnerable through the air and on explosive plays, ranking in the bottom half of FBS in both categories. Probably give the edge to the ‘Dores in this matchup based on the season as a whole, and the uncertainty of the Texas quarterback situation.
Defensively, the Longhorns took a rather large step back last week without leader Michael Taaffe. He is questionable to return for this week’s game, and if he goes he will be less than 100%. But I think many of us would take a 50% Taaffe on Saturday for what he brings to the team. Still, the approach will be vastly different this week compared to Jeff Lebby’s spread passing attack that hurt the Horns a lot in Starkville. It should favor the strength of our defense which is the front seven. I still trust this group, and getting back home should be a welcome thing as our top unit looks to get back on track. Diego Pavia leads Vandy against Texas for the second year in a row, now with a much improved team around him and skill positions that could really hurt the Horns. Pavia is 12th in the nation in QBR and is of course a threat on the ground - but I do think Texas will be able to neutralize that threat through Anthony Hill or Lefau. The thing Vanderbilt will try to do, and does very well, is limit the possessions of the game by taking the air out of the ball, getting into short yardage third downs, and bleeding clock whenever possible. They’re also very good at limiting sacks and TFLs. It will be strength on strength up front, so if one team can get an edge on the line of scrimmage, they will likely win this game. I give a very slight edge to Texas in this matchup and can see us taking away Vandy’s run game and forcing Pavia to be superman - which we’ve seen already from John Mateer that it’s a really tough thing to be successful at against our defense.
Ok so the offense got back on track - one game can be an anomaly. Two is a trend, and I’m once again putting faith in Sark to deliver a game plan to get some points on the board consistently. He has still lost just one SEC game in each of his two seasons in the league (saying that as long as I still can!) and is undefeated against currently active coaches not named Kirby Smart (sorry, Napier…). We ride with our guy. Vanderbilt is coached by Clark Lea, becoming a hotter and hotter name for some of the big positions opening up around college football. And for good reason. Lea has Vandy in the AP top 10 for the first time in about 80 years, and it’s very possible they’ll have their best season, ever. Overall, Lea has a 23-34 record with Vanderbilt, but has taken a 2-10 team just two years ago to a bowl win last year and now a 7-1 record with playoff dreams. It pains me that we have to put a real damper on those dreams for our season to stay alive. Such is the way it goes.
Advantage: None
The Model
I like what I see from the model this week. It’s coming around more and more on Texas, which is funny because many people are going the opposite way. Either that, or this really is a favorable matchup for Texas. I sure don’t have it as a 75% chance for the Longhorns to take this one, in my head anyway. Come onnnn, model!
You can check out Travis’s predictive modeling of college football at his Substack: travismdavid.substack.com
Advantage: Texas
Prediction
Trying to predict a Texas football game this year is like trying to predict a winning lottery number. Alas, this is what we do - and as fans we still love it. I can see this one as a back and forth, one possession game throughout, coming down to one or two crucial possessions in the 4th quarter. I could also see either team building a sizeable lead and winning comfortably. So yeah, not much of a read on this one. I’ll stick with the burnt orange and white. The Longhorns pick up their 2nd top 10 win of the year and keep that slim hope alive for one more week (or two I suppose). Surely the hope won’t kill me, right?
Score prediction: Texas 20, Vanderbilt 17
Hook ‘em
