Red River Game Preview
Texas is set to play its first night game of the season, hosting Sam Houston on Saturday. Photo: University of Texas Athletics
Outlook
Well, here we go. Dallas.
It’s the one that means more than most, as Texas takes on Oklahoma in Red River. This game looks a lot different than it did before the season, even than a week ago as a potential top 10 matchup. Instead, the Longhorns come in unranked after a 29-21 loss to Florida last week, dropping to 3-2 on the season. Oklahoma is 5-0 and ranked #6 in the AP.
Texas enters desperation mode for this one, still seeking its first win over a power 4 opponent this season, and trying to save a season currently on life support.
The game will be played in the Cotton Bowl on Saturday at 2:30pm CDT in Dallas, Texas, and will be televised on ABC. The Longhorns are favored by 1.5 points, with the over/under set at 44.5.
Texas Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
Let’s face it, it’s been a struggle for Texas on offense this season. There have been some encouraging signs out of the play from much maligned quarterback Arch Manning - he continues to fight and showed a lot of heart even in the face of difficult conditions against Florida (the conditions being terrible offensive line play and no running game to lean on). However, if things keep going the way they have, it’s hard to envision this Longhorn offense being able to score enough points to keep up in some of its most difficult matchups the rest of the way. Here’s hoping Sark and the offensive staff can find something to help get the linemen on track and establish some sort of consistency in the run game. Having Tre Wisner healthier for this game will be a must, but even with him in the game the Horns got nothing on the ground vs. the Gators. Something will have to change, or it’s going to be a long day and it won’t be pretty.
Oklahoma ranks near the top of college football in many defensive stats. They’re great at the line of scrimmage and have limited opposing backs to very little, outside of a few explosive plays. Their pass rush must be licking their chops after seeing Florida pressure Manning all day and get home for six sacks. There’s no way around it - this is a highly talented and well coached group that is one of the best in college football. Texas will have its hands full on this side of the ball and must play its best game of the season to date.
Advantage: Oklahoma
Texas Defense vs. Oklahoma Offense
The Longhorns defense took it on the chin a week ago in a shocking manner. I called it an anomaly and I’m sticking by that. Maybe it’s just me coping, but I back our guys to have a turnaround performance and get back to playing championship caliber defense. Getting Manny Muhammad back for this game will be a nice boost. This is still a defense capable of dictating games, and whether the Sooners are rolling out Mateer or Hawkins, they’ll be ready to fight for 60 minutes. Let’s bring the heat and show them who puts the D in Dallas!
All the headlines will be about Mateer, but there is a real weakness of this Oklahoma offense and it doesn’t have to do with the quarterback. The run game has been abysmal for these guys all year, specifically with their running backs, as Mateer leads the team in rushing. Overall they rank 97th in the nation in rush yards per game. This must be an area where the Texas defense takes advantage, as they failed to do in Gainesville. If they can do so and force Mateer/Hawkins into longer obvious passing situations, it will force the Oklahoma quarterback to be Superman. That’s probably the best way forward for a path to a Longhorn victory.
Advantage: Texas
Coaching
What to make of this coaching matchup? It’s true that Steve Sarkisian is 2-1 against Brent Venables in Red River, and 2-2 overall. This does include the 2022 and 2024 blowout editions where OU really wasn’t able to field a competent offense of any sort due to injuries or other reasons. When the two teams were fully healthy, we saw a classic in 2023 which Venables and the Sooners prevailed in. Now then, I do expect Sark to do whatever it takes to motivate the team, and I expect they will be after what happened last week. It’s now or never for this 2025 team - this only question is whether they will respond to the adversity.
With Venables, it’s still too early to tell what direction the program is going, and Sooner fans may not want to be much more patient. Sure, they’re off to a good start this season with a top 10 ranking attached to their name, but a brutal stretch run could spell another so-so year for Venables. Surely though, winning this one would go a long way for not only this season but the program as a whole. In his 4th season with Oklahoma, BV boasts a 27-17 record, regressing back to 6-7 last year after a 10-win season before that. Let’s hope Sark wins this chess match and perhaps turns up the heat on Brent’s seat.
Advantage: Texas
The Model
The model likes Texas to edge this one out - I could honestly see a game very similar to this score playing out if things go well for the Longhorns. The 64% win probability is definitely higher than my confidence level going into this. Come on, model!
You can check out Travis’s predictive modeling of college football at his Substack: travismdavid.substack.com
Advantage: Texas
Prediction
The vibes are not real high around the Forty Acres right now (football wise). We’ve barely had anything to be excited about all season, and our backs are against the wall. If John Mateer does play as it is being indicated, I see a really tough road to a Longhorn victory here. That Oklahoma defense has just been so tough. That said, I’ll take that tough road, and I’ll always back the Horns in Red River. Hook ‘em forever.
Score prediction: Texas 17, Oklahoma 16
Hook ‘em
