Mississippi State Game Preview
Last season, Arch Manning looked great in his SEC debut against the Bulldogs from Starkville. Photo: Kennedy Weatherby, The Daily Texan
Outlook
Well, so much for the fun.
After a narrow (narrow) escape in Lexington, Kentucky, the Longhorns find themselves 5-2 for the season heading into another away trip, this time to Starkville, MS. Prevailing 16-13 in OT last week, Texas is 2-1 in SEC play. Mississippi State comes into this game on a 3-game losing streak, sitting 4-3 on the season and 0-3 in the SEC. They snatched defeat from the jaws of victory last week in the Swamp (and still got Billy Napier fired!), falling 23-21 to the Gators. Been there. The Horns lead the all-time series 3-2, having captured the latest meeting 35-13 in Austin last year.
So, another game against an opponent currently winless in conference play. A seemingly straightforward task that has proven to be anything but for this year’s Longhorns. The Bulldogs are a much improved bunch from last year, and have a good win over Arizona State under their belt, with close losses coming to Tennessee and Florida. If Texas is to win, they’ll have to play much better than they did in Lexington last Saturday night. We’ve seen a pattern emerging of alternating good and bad performances from this Texas team, so if that holds true we should see some of the good again in Starkville.
The game will be played at Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday at 3:15pm CDT in Starkville, Mississippi, and will be televised on SEC Network. The Longhorns are favored by 6.5 points, with the over/under set at 46.5.
Kentucky Recap
OK, not going into a full recap of the ungodliness that was the Texas @ Kentucky game. But will put a few thoughts down here so as not to skip over it entirely and act like it didn’t happen (you know what, maybe that’s the better strategy). As an observer who saw a minimal amount of the game in real time, I’m relying on the Burnt Orange Kool-Aid community for much of the commentary here.
Texas narrowly escaped with its life after a 16-13 overtime win last Saturday night over the Wildcats. A loss there would have spelled complete disaster and would be the nail in the coffin for this season (in terms of championships and playoffs), but on we go, at least for another week. It was a game where both teams likely came away disappointed, as Kentucky outgained Texas 395-179 and picked up 26 first downs to just 8 for the Horns. However, the Longhorn defense and special teams delivered when they needed to, with the defense stopping the Wildcats on short yardage situations inside the 10 twice for turnovers on downs, and Ryan Niblett setting up 10 points for Texas with a pair of long punt returns. Mason Shipley also delivered 3 crucial field goals, including the walk-off winner in overtime.
It is probably understated how the loss of starting center Cole Hutson affected the offense, but still Arch Manning and the rest of the group played very poorly the whole night. The only touchdown drive was set up by Niblett with the offense needing just 5 yards to score. A big blow for Texas came in the aftermath of this game, as it was announced Michael Taaffe had undergone hand surgery and will miss significant time - the medical staff expects a return likely for the Georgia game. The loss of Taaffe cannot be understated as well, as the emotional leader of the team in addition to being one of the best defensive backs in the nation.
At the end of the day, the important thing is the Longhorns did escape with a win, and live to fight another day. Still, it’s 9 weeks into the season and we need to see massive improvement on the offensive end for any chance of SEC title or playoff contention. The goals are still in place, for now.
The Matchups: Texas @ Mississippi State
Just when we thought things might be turning around, they took a big step back for the Texas offense last week. It has become an emerging pattern that they follow up a good week with a poor one, and the night in Lexington may have been the worst yet for this year’s offense. If the pattern continues, things are looking up against MSU. One good thing is the status of RB CJ Baxter, who was upgraded to probable for this game, and it would be really nice to see him get some meaningful snaps. Texas needs to establish the run game, something it failed to do last week and yet was able to do quite well in Dallas. If they’re able to do it against the Bulldogs, things become much easier for this offense and it takes a lot of the pressure off the passing game and the play calling. As for Mississippi State’s defense, they’ve been about average this year - being a lot more susceptible to the ground game than through the air (a good thing for the Horns). They’ve also been very poor in generating sacks or TFLs, though don’t be surprised if going up against our o-line is just the medicine they need to start getting those. The path is clear for Texas: run the dang ball.
On defense, the Longhorns are proving more and more that the showing in Gainesville was a one-off, and they’ve been close to a lights out group since. Now, the absence of Taaffe is a massive one, but Derek Williams is a more than capable fill in at safety. If the Horns can get a lead early, I like the chances of Colin Simmons and co. being able to tee off the rest of the game and come up with several sacks and game-changing plays. It’s an area the MSU offense has been really weak in, so I like our chances to exploit that weakness. They’re an average offense, with nothing standing out statistically. The Bulldogs will be led by QB Blake Shapen, a name Texas fans will be familiar with from his time at Baylor. Last year, Shapen was injured when the teams met and the Horns faced backup Michael Van Buren (no relation) instead, now at LSU. Overall, it’s a scrappy bunch that will probably keep the game tight at least until late in the second half.
Pay no mind to the coaching rumors swirling around Steve Sarkisian right now. I don’t give them a single ounce of substance. Sark is here to stay. And he’s got a lot of work to do yet with this year’s team and the program as a whole. He’s got to find a way to get this offense on track and playing more consistent football. If things don’t improve the rest of the season, I would take a long look at the offensive staff. For now, we still need to see how the remaining 5 league games play out. Still trusting our guy. Mississippi State is coached by Jeff Lebby, of notable Oklahoma football lineage. He sports a 6-13 record with the Bulldogs in his second season. It remains to be seen if he can build the program back up to where it was during the Dak Prescott years when they reached #1 in the AP. Texas has the clear edge here.
Advantage: Texas
The Model
This week’s model likes Texas right around the number that Vegas is giving. I would be comfortable with that margin, so I’m counting on the model to deliver another correct prediction on the spread where it’s now called 6/7 Texas games right.
You can check out Travis’s predictive modeling of college football at his Substack: travismdavid.substack.com
Advantage: Texas
Prediction
After what we saw last week, it’s hard to have a ton of confidence especially around this Texas offense. We will have to bank on the team having a tough week of practice and coming in with the mentality they did in Dallas, to deliver a bounce back performance (because the Kentucky game really felt like a loss). The loss of Taaffe hurts, but Shipley delivers just enough field goals to get the good guys over the hump. Let’s quiet the cowbells.
Score prediction: Texas 23, Mississippi State 17
Hook ‘em
