UTSA Game Preview
The calm after the storm.
After a thrilling 24–23 victory over No. 1 Ohio State, the Longhorns are riding high. Texas has a signature win, a 2–0 record, and another distinction: the new No. 1 team in the nation.
Cue up another Saturday night in Austin!
The UTSA Roadrunners make the short trip up I-35 to Austin on Saturday, with Texas looking to build on its momentum before the SEC schedule begins. The Longhorns are favored by 30.5 points, with the over/under set at 58.5.
But the question this week isn't whether Texas can rise to the occasion against an elite opponent. It's whether the Horns can bring that same intensity when the spotlight isn't quite as bright (I mean the game isn’t even on broadcast TV for crying out loud!)
The game will be played Saturday at 7:00 p.m. CDT at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium and streaming on SECN+. The Longhorns are currently favored by 30.5 points.
The Buckeyes are in the rearview mirror. Conference play is approaching. And the Longhorns have no intention of letting last week's victory become this week's distraction.
Time to handle business.
Texas OFFENSE Vs. UTSA Defense
It was really a tale of two halves for the Longhorns offense against the Buckeyes, though the running game remained pretty consistent throughout. The unit wasn’t really allowed to get going with the two early fluke turnovers — but once Arch started to improvise in the second half things really started to flow. After putting up 59 points against Texas State in the opener, the Longhorns' offense spent nearly three quarters struggling to find answers against Ohio State. Texas entered the fourth quarter trailing 23–3 before Arch Manning and company engineered three consecutive touchdown drives to pull off a remarkable 24–23 victory. Manning finished with 196 passing yards, and his touchdown pass to Ryan Wingo among two 4th-down conversions sparked the comeback.
UTSA's defense enters Austin with some concerning numbers, particularly against the run. The Roadrunners surrendered 289 rushing yards on 50 attempts against Texas State, allowing 5.8 yards per carry in a narrow 31–26 victory. Linebacker Brandon Tucker Jr. led the defense with 13 tackles, while defensive lineman Tai Leonard and outside linebacker Camron Cooper are important pieces of the front seven. UTSA failed to record a sack against the Bobcats, although the secondary did come away with two interceptions. If the Roadrunners can't generate pressure without bringing extra defenders, Manning should have opportunities to attack downfield.
The biggest concern for Texas will be a sluggish start after an emotional win. I’d like to see Arch get on the same page with his receivers early in the game. It took nearly three quarters to get going against Ohio State before he got in rhythm and was spreading the ball around in clutch moments to Mosley, Wingo, Coleman, and Winston. The Longhorns rushed for 141 yards on 3.4 per carry against a very tough Ohio State front, and imposed their will late in the game when they had to. After that performance, I believe in this Longhorn run game and am excited to see both Smothers and Brown, as well as others get involved.
If they can avoid an emotional letdown, the Horns should have another big night on the offensive end.
Advantage: Texas
Texas Defense vs. UTSA Offense
UTSA comes to Austin with an experienced quarterback and an offense that can move the football. Owen McCown has completed 50 of 69 passes for 489 yards and four touchdowns without an interception through two games. The Roadrunners have several capable receivers, with DJ Allen, Mekhi Anderson and AJ Wilson combining for 31 catches, 390 yards and three touchdowns. Wilson caught nine passes for 83 yards against Texas State, while Anderson hauled in five for 83 yards and a score. McCown has plenty of options, and Texas can't afford to overlook this passing attack.
The matchup Texas should be able to exploit is up front. UTSA's offensive line has dealt with injuries, particularly at tackle, and struggled at times against Texas State. That's an inviting opportunity for Colin Simmons and Lance Jackson, who will look to make McCown uncomfortable and disrupt the timing of the Roadrunners' passing game. McCown is experienced enough to get the ball out quickly, so Texas will need to maintain discipline rather than simply hunting sacks. If Will Muschamp can generate pressure with four defenders, the Longhorns can devote additional help to containing UTSA's receiving threats.
The Roadrunners also have some legitimate weapons in the backfield. Will Henderson III has rushed for 181 yards, averaging 7.9 yards per attempt through two games, including 80 against Texas State. Brandon High Jr. delivered the game-winning 25-yard touchdown run with just 14 seconds remaining in that game. The Roadrunners finished with 140 rushing yards against the Bobcats, but Texas presents a considerably different challenge up front. The Longhorns will need to contain Henderson's explosiveness and force UTSA into predictable passing situations, where Simmons and Jackson can attack the pocket.
Bottom line: Texas needs to make McCown uncomfortable, contain Henderson, and prevent UTSA's offense from finding an early rhythm.
Advantage: Texas
Coaching Matchup
Steve Sarkisian enters Saturday with the Longhorns riding high after their thrilling 24–23 victory over Ohio State. Texas is now 2–0 and sits atop all the polls, but Sark's challenge this week is considerably different. After preparing his team for a heavyweight showdown against the Buckeyes, he now has to ensure the Longhorns don't overlook a UTSA team coming off a narrow victory over Texas State. This is an opportunity to clean up the offensive inconsistencies from last week, establish the running game, and build momentum before SEC play. The last thing Texas needs is an emotional letdown after its biggest win of the young season, and I’m sure Sark will do everything he can to ensure that doesn’t happen.
On the other sideline, Jeff Traylor has built UTSA into a program capable of competing with more established opponents. The Roadrunners enter Austin at 2–0, but their 31–26 escape against Texas State exposed some concerns, particularly on defense. Traylor knows the Longhorns well, having previously served as an assistant at Texas, and head coach for the 2022 and 2024 matchups against Sark. He'll need to find ways to shorten the game, keep Owen McCown and the offense on the field, and prevent Texas from establishing control early. The Roadrunners have nothing to lose, but Traylor faces a difficult assignment against a Texas team with considerably more talent and depth.
Yeah, nothing to overthink in this one. Sark has won the previous two matchups with a combined 97-27 score.
Advantage: Texas
The Model
MATCHUP PROJECTION
Week 3 · September 19, 2026
The Model projects Texas by 28.0 points, compared to the market line of Texas -30.5. That gives UTSA a modest 2.5-point edge against the spread. Texas holds a substantial advantage on paper and should control the matchup, but the projected margin falls just short of market expectations. With only two games of 2026 data available, the matchup analytics remain an early-season snapshot.
Prediction
I expect Texas to come out with plenty of confidence after that incredible comeback against Ohio State, but I also want to see a much cleaner offensive performance from jump. The Longhorn run game should have opportunities against a UTSA defense that just surrendered 289 rushing yards to Texas State. My player to watch is Cam Coleman. He's hauled in a few big catches on the young season but has yet to have a breakout game — this is a perfect opportunity for that.
Defensively, the Longhorns can't afford to sleepwalk through this one. With an experienced quarterback and an explosive threat on the ground, the Roadrunners can do some damage. But I like the matchup for Texas’ edge rushers against UTSA's offensive line. If Texas can contain the run and generate pressure without bringing extra defenders, Muschamp should have plenty of answers for the Roadrunners' passing attack.
I can see UTSA moving the football enough to keep this from becoming a complete demolition, particularly if Texas takes its foot off the gas with a comfortable lead later in the game. But the talent advantage is substantial, and I expect the Longhorns to establish control early, get the offense rolling, and avoid any unnecessary drama.
Let’s have a night!
Texas 48, UTSA 13
Hook ‘em
