BOK ANALYTICS

MATCHUP PROJECTION

Week 2 · Ohio State at Texas · September 12, 2026

TEXAS

1-0

WIN PROBABILITY

54%

TEXAS

Texas 54% Ohio State 46%

PROJECTED SCORE

TEXAS 27 — 26 OHIO STATE

OHIO STATE

1-0

MARKET EDGE

MARKET

TEXAS -1.5

BOK MODEL

TEXAS -1.4

BOK EDGE

OSU +0.1

EARLY-SEASON SAMPLE: Matchup analytics below reflect one game of 2026 data and should be treated as directional rather than predictive.

MATCHUP ANALYTICS

2026 national ranks · Tap or hover over a rank for the underlying value

TEXAS OFFENSE

VS.

OHIO STATE DEFENSE

36

Efficiency

20

49

Success Rate

19

8

Passing PPA

14

11

Pass Success

13

91

Rushing PPA

48

111

Rush Success

26

20

Finishing Drives

20

OHIO STATE OFFENSE

VS.

TEXAS DEFENSE

7

Efficiency

85

15

Success Rate

98

14

Passing PPA

102

4

Pass Success

117

43

Rushing PPA

45

84

Rush Success

66

1

Finishing Drives

32

BOK TAKEAWAY

TOSS-UP

The Model projects Texas by 1.4 points, virtually identical to the market line of Texas -1.5. The model therefore sees no meaningful ATS edge in either direction. Texas owns home-field advantage, but Ohio State enters Austin after an exceptionally efficient offensive performance in Week 1. With only one game of 2026 data available, the matchup analytics remain highly volatile.

BOK ANALYTICS

TEXAS SEASON TRAJECTORY

Offensive and defensive efficiency by week — prototype using dummy data

Offensive Efficiency

Defensive Efficiency

BOK ANALYTICS

POSTGAME ANALYTICS

Texas 34, Georgia 27 — prototype using dummy data

TEXAS

34

FINAL

GEORGIA

27

HOW TEXAS WON

Key analytical battles

TEXAS

METRIC

GEORGIA

49.2%

Success Rate

41.7%

+0.34

PPA / Play

+0.18

8

Explosive Plays

4

5.3

Points / Opportunity

4.1

17.8%

Havoc Rate

10.6%

1

Turnovers

2

56%

Game Control

44%

KEY BATTLES WON

0 — 0

Texas Georgia

THE DIFFERENCE

TEXAS WON THE EFFICIENCY BATTLE

Texas consistently stayed ahead of schedule and generated twice as many explosive plays as Georgia. The Longhorns also created more defensive disruption and turned scoring opportunities into touchdowns at a higher rate, giving them the edge in the areas that mattered most.

Prototype only — all statistics shown here are dummy data.

BOK ANALYTICS

MODEL TRACKER

Tracking every BOK Model prediction through the 2026 season — prototype using dummy data

STRAIGHT UP

—

AGAINST THE SPREAD

—

MARGIN MAE

—

Points

SCORE MAE

—

Points

2026 PREDICTIONS

Projection performance by game

GAME

PROJECTION

MARKET

RESULT

SU

ATS

ERROR

MODEL CHECK

EARLY RETURNS

The BOK Model is still working through a small sample. Accuracy and error rates will become more meaningful as the season progresses.

CFP PREDICTION

PRESEASON

FIRST ROUND

QUARTERFINAL

SEMIFINAL

NATIONAL
CHAMPIONSHIP

5

TEX

12

BSU

8

TTU

9

UGA

7

OSU

10

BAMA

6

MIA

11

4

ORE

5

TEX

1

ND

9

UGA

2

IND

7

OSU

3

MISS

6

MIA

5

TEX

1

ND

2

IND

3

MISS

5

TEX

2

IND

CHAMPION TEXAS

SEC POWER RANKINGS

WEEK 3

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

SEC POWER RANKINGS

WEEK 5

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

COUNTDOWN TO KICKOFF

00

DAYS

00

HRS

00

MINS

00

SECS

LIVE

1ST · 15:00

TEXAS

0

TEXAS BALL

1st & 10

TEX 41

TEXAS STATE

0

FINAL

TEXAS

0

TEXAS STATE

0

READ THE RECAP →

TEXAS

LONGHORNS

1-0 (0-0 SEC)

DKR - TEXAS MEMORIAL

STADIUM

AUSTIN, TX

VS

6:30 PM CT

OHIO STATE

BUCKEYES

1-0 (0-0 BIG TEN)

◉

ALL-TIME SERIES

Ohio State leads 3-2

◷

LAST MEETING

L, 7-14 (2025)

STREAK

Lost 2

BOK ANALYTICS

SEC EFFICIENCY

SEC-relative efficiency after Week 1