Texas State Game Preview
PREVIEW
At last — GAME TIME.
The Longhorns welcome the Texas State Bobcats to Austin on Saturday for the 2026 season opener. Texas enters the season as the No. 5 team in the AP Poll and No. 4 in our very own BOK Poll (for whatever preseason rankings are worth). Our Horns are coming off a 10–3 2025 season in which they fell short of the College Football Playoff but ended with an emphatic comeback bowl win over Michigan, after dispatching our Aggie friends to end the regular season.
Texas State comes off a 7–6 season in the Sun Belt, capped by a bowl win over Rice. The Bobcats now enter their first season as members of the newly re-formed Pac-12. The Longhorns and Bobcats have met just once before, in 1930, with Texas coming out victorious, 36–0.
The game will be played Saturday at 2:30 p.m. CDT at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin and televised on ESPN. The Longhorns are currently favored by 29.5 points.
There will be much bigger tests ahead — and in short order. For now, it's Week 1, DKR will be rocking, and Texas football is back.
Let's get to it.
Texas State: What To Know
The Bobcats come to town as a program in a much different place than it was just a few years ago. G.J. Kinne has taken them to three straight bowl wins after they had never previously reached a bowl in their first 12 years as an FBS program. Now, Texas State steps into the new-look Pac-12 looking to prove itself on a larger national stage. This isn’t a pushover program, and Sark recently alluded to their CFP prospects for this season. While that may be premature — and perhaps a bit of a motivational device on the part of our coach — I believe they are worth taking seriously.
The biggest reason for that is their offense. Quarterback Brad Jackson returns after throwing for over 3,000 yards and 21 touchdowns last season, while adding over 700 yards and 17 scores on the ground. They also return the only 1,000-yard receiving duo in the nation in Chris Dawn Jr. and Beau Sparks. Kinne runs the veer-and-shoot, aiming to force defenses to defend the whole field — which should provide an immediate test for Will Muschamp's defense.
Now, defense is decidedly NOT their strong suit. Texas State gave up 30.6 points per game last season, good for 95th in FBS. The questions remain, with new defensive coordinator Will Windham taking over an overhauled unit. Yeah, good luck trying to figure it out against Cam Coleman, Hollywood Smothers, Arch Manning and company.
For the Longhorns, that's exactly the kind of opponent you want in Week 1 — dangerous enough to demand your attention, but one you should defeat handily.
Coaching Matchup
Steve Sarkisian enters his sixth (already??) season at Texas, coming off three consecutive double-digit-win seasons. After the growing pains of the first few years, Sark has led the Longhorns to two CFP appearances, frequent rivalry annihilation, and a 48–20 overall record (70.5 win %). The rebuilding years are a thing of the past; this is an upper-echelon program with championship-level talent. Saturday begins the next test: turning all that talent and continuity into a championship season.
On the other side, G.J. Kinne has engineered a nice turnaround of his own in San Marcos. Texas State had gone nine straight seasons without a winning record before Kinne arrived, and the Bobcats have since posted three straight winning seasons and won a bowl game in each of them. Kinne is now 23–16 at Texas State and 35–18 overall as a head coach, building his reputation around the aggressive offensive philosophy that has followed him throughout his career. The scale may be different, but both coaches enter 2026 having elevated their respective programs considerably from where they found them.
Advantage: Texas
The Model
MATCHUP PROJECTION
Week 1
The BOK Model sees a substantial talent and efficiency advantage for Texas across the board. The Longhorns enter Week 1 with major advantages in overall power rating, preseason SP+, roster talent and returning production, producing a projected 31-point victory at DKR.
Texas State brings enough offensive ability to test the Longhorn defense, but the model expects Texas' depth and talent advantage to take over as the game progresses. The BOK Model makes Texas a 30.5-point favorite with a 96% chance to open the season 1–0.
Prediction
Look for a potential first-quarter track meet before Muschamp adjusts and counters Kinne’s offense. I expect the defense to settle in and put the clamps down as the game goes along. On the other side, there will be no one to stop the Longhorn offense except themselves. We’ll have explosive plays, big running lanes, and hopefully a couple gadgets to break out. My player to watch is Raleek Brown — look for him to pop one and show off that first-class speed.
Beyond that, let’s get some young guys and fresh faces out there and really show off this roster’s depth. Would love to see K.J. Lacey take charge of the offense for at least a quarter.
Let’s all enjoy a stress-free Saturday watching the Longhorns in September. We’ve earned it.
Texas 48, Texas State 17
Hook ‘em
