Ole Miss Game Preview
Well, so much for the rebound.
After the crushing loss to Oklahoma in Dallas, Texas returned home with a chance to steady the ship against Florida. Instead, the Longhorns suffered another gut punch, falling to the Gators and dropping to 4-2 overall and 1-2 in SEC play.
So, what now?
There’s really no sugarcoating it anymore. Texas has gone from legitimate national championship aspirations to a season sitting squarely on the brink. The margin for error is gone, execution has been inconsistent, and opportunities to take control of games have repeatedly slipped away.
Now, one of the best teams in the SEC comes to Austin.
Ole Miss enters Saturday at 5-1 and 3-1 in conference play, fresh off an emphatic 31-3 win over Missouri. The Rebels bring an explosive offense, plenty of confidence, and a real chance to bury Texas’ season if the Longhorns don’t respond.
For Texas, the equation has become pretty simple: win at all costs.
Whatever hopes remain for the SEC title game, CFP, and salvaging what was expected to be a championship season almost certainly require the Longhorns to stop the bleeding now.
Texas leads the all-time series 6-2, though Ole Miss won the most recent meeting 44-23 in Austin in 2013. The market has the Longhorns favored by 3.5 points, with the over/under set at 53.5.
The game will be played Saturday at 6:30 p.m. CDT at DKR in Austin and will be televised on ABC.
Backs against the wall. Time to find out what this team is made of.
Texas OFFENSE Vs. Ole Miss Defense
Okay, now we’re officially on red alert.
After another frustrating performance against Florida, the Longhorn offense has reached the point where flashes are no longer enough. Texas can still put together stretches where everything looks right — but those stretches continue to be surrounded by far too many empty possessions. The inconsistency from drive to drive has become the defining issue, and against a team like Ole Miss, Texas simply cannot afford to disappear for long stretches.
Arch Manning is still taking plenty of criticism, and a lot of it is deserved. The turnovers and missed opportunities have hurt. But the entire offense is broken right now, from offensive line, to play calling, blocking on the edges, and run support. And the larger issue remains the same: the offense has to make life easier on Arch. That means better early-down execution, more production in the run game, and continuing to use Arch’s legs when defenses give him space. Texas does not need him to become a one-man offense, but it does need to consistently take advantage of everything he brings athletically.
The good news is that Ole Miss is far from an impenetrable defense.
The Rebels are allowing 390 yards per game, including 236.5 through the air and 153.5 on the ground, while opponents are averaging 23.8 points per game. They’re also allowing opponents to convert nearly 44% of their third downs. Those numbers put Ole Miss well outside the nation’s elite defensive units - in some cases ranking in the 100s in the country.
That said, their defense has shown signs of improvement from earlier in the year. Ole Miss has allowed just 20 total points over its last two games, including holding Missouri to three points last week, and the Rebels have been much more disruptive in scoring situations.
So this is another opportunity for Texas to get right offensively — but unlike Florida, Ole Miss is dangerous enough on the other side that wasted possessions could put the Horns in a hole quickly.
If the offense is going to turn the corner, this feels like the week it has to happen.
Advantage: None
Texas Defense vs. Ole Miss Offense
If there’s one part of this Texas team that still deserves the benefit of the doubt, it’s the defense.
Texas is allowing just 17.8 points and 272.5 yards per game on the season, including only 106.3 rushing yards per game, and opponents are converting just 33% of their third downs.
The frustrating part remains the lack of takeaways. Texas has only five forced turnovers through six games, with three interceptions and two fumble recoveries. And none coming since the last play of the Ohio State game. For a defense playing this well overall, that’s the one area where you’d still like to see more impact plays — especially with the offense struggling to consistently sustain drives.
This week, though, the challenge ramps up considerably.
Ole Miss enters averaging 37.5 points and 444.5 yards per game, including nearly 291 passing yards per contest. Trinidad Chambliss has been outstanding, completing 67.6% of his passes for 1,676 yards, 14 touchdowns and only four interceptions, while also adding six rushing scores. He’s experienced, efficient, and athletic enough to extend plays when things break down.
And the Rebels aren’t one-dimensional. Against Missouri last week, Ole Miss rushed for 257 yards, with Kewan Lacy going for 122 and Makhi Frazier adding 101. That balance is what makes this offense dangerous — Texas can’t simply sit back and play coverage against Chambliss, because Ole Miss has shown it can punish teams on the ground too.
So this is the matchup that could decide the game. Texas has been good enough defensively to keep the Horns in every contest so far, but Ole Miss presents a much more complete offensive challenge than Oklahoma or Florida. And the loss of Colin Simmons is a massive hole that is a real negative impact on this defense.
If the Longhorns can limit explosive plays, hold up against the run, and finally steal a possession or two, they’ll give the offense every chance to win this game.
Advantage: None
Coaching Matchup
For Sark, this game needs to be about simplifying things without becoming predictable. The offense has spent too much time looking like it is searching for answers instead of dictating terms, and that has put too much pressure on Arch Manning and the defense. Texas still has more than enough talent to be explosive, but Sark has to put his best players in positions to succeed, stay aggressive when something is working, and stop letting leads turn into conservative football. If Texas gets Ole Miss on its heels, keep them there. We’ve lost our sense of FUN. Bring back All Gas, No Brakes!!
Pete Golding is in his first full season as the head coach at Ole Miss, but this hardly looks like a program going through a transition. After taking over for Lane Kiffin late last year and leading the Rebels through their College Football Playoff run, Golding has Ole Miss at 5-1 and 3-1 in the SEC this season. The Rebels have already beaten LSU and Missouri, and Golding has quickly shown he can keep Ole Miss competing at a high level while putting his own stamp on the program.
The fascinating part is that Golding made his reputation on defense, while this Ole Miss team is once again dangerous because of what it can do offensively. He inherited a program that had become accustomed to winning under Kiffin, and so far there has been very little drop-off.
Sark has the experience advantage, but Golding’s Rebels have been the more consistent team to this point.
Advantage: Texas
The Model
MATCHUP PROJECTION
Week 8 · October 24, 2026
The Model projects Texas by 7.5 points at home, compared with the market line of Texas -3.5, giving the Longhorns a 4.0-point edge against the spread. Texas owns the stronger cumulative profile in four of the seven matchup categories, with Ole Miss holding advantages in overall efficiency and rushing PPA and the teams tied in rush success. The clearest Texas advantage comes in finishing drives, where the Longhorns rank 24th nationally compared with Ole Miss at 39th. The Rebels bring the more productive offense, but Texas' defensive profile and home-field advantage push the Model projection well beyond the current market line.
Prediction
So…when will the downward spiral end? This feels like a true inflection point for the program. Win and right the ship, and perhaps salvage a good season similarly to last year. Lose, and it feels like all the wheels have come off the tracks. The noise is getting louder and louder in Austin.
We’ve all watched this team struggle for much of the season at this point. They’re one magical quarter against Ohio State away from being 3-3. There are great players on this team. It’s just not a very good team. The pieces are not fitting together, for whatever reason. It’s hard to be optimistic right now going up against a legitimately good top 10 opponent. I just can’t see the offense doing enough to keep pace with Chambliss and the Rebels. The Koolaid is running dry, folks!
And if I’m right…look out. Things could get ugly.
Texas 24, Ole Miss 34
Hook ‘em
