Ohio State Game Preview
Here we go again.
After opening the season with a 59–7 demolition of Texas State, the Longhorns don't have to wait long for their first real test of 2026. The No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes are coming to Austin.
Texas enters Saturday 1–0 and No. 3 in the BOK Poll, while Ohio State holds the top spot after opening its season with a 56–3 win over Ball State. Both teams handled business comfortably in Week 1. Now, we'll find out quite a bit more about both of them.
These two programs have become plenty familiar with each other. Ohio State ended Texas' 2024 season in the College Football Playoff semifinal before the Buckeyes welcomed the Longhorns to Columbus in the very next game for Texas, with the Horns falling once again, 14–7 in a defensive slugfest. The Buckeyes now lead the all-time series 3–2, with Texas' last win coming in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl.
This time, the game comes to Austin.
The game will be played Saturday at 6:30 p.m. CDT at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium and televised nationally on ABC. The Longhorns are currently favored by 1.5 points.
The warmup is over. No. 3 Texas. No. 1 Ohio State. Saturday night in DKR.
It’s time to even the score.
Texas OFFENSE Vs. Ohio State Defense
The opener for Texas inspired a lot of confidence, particularly in the passing game. Arch Manning looked comfortable from the start, completing 20 of 27 passes for 305 yards and four touchdowns, while getting both old hats and new faces involved. Ryan Wingo led Texas with seven catches for 121 yards and a touchdown, and Auburn transfer Cam Coleman added 70 yards and two touchdowns on just three receptions. Those two give Texas an explosive combination on the outside that simply wasn't there in last year's meeting.
Ohio State's secondary will get all it can handle after allowing just 120 passing yards against Ball State. The Buckeyes are replacing several major contributors from last year's dominant defense, including Caleb Downs. That leaves a talented but relatively inexperienced group on the back end. Freshman Jay Timmons earned a starting role immediately, while Matt Patricia still has enough talent in the front seven to make life difficult for Manning. If Ohio State can't consistently generate pressure without bringing extra bodies, Sark should have opportunities to get Wingo and Coleman isolated against that young secondary.
The bigger concern for Texas is the running game. The Longhorns rushed for 156 yards against Texas State, but Hollywood Smothers accounted for 70 of them on 10 carries — including his opening 45-yard run — while Raleek Brown managed just 34 yards on 11 attempts. Take away Smothers' long run and Texas averaged only 3.2 yards per carry. Ohio State surrendered just 45 rushing yards in its opener, and its defensive front remains the strength of the unit, led by Kenyatta Jackson Jr. Texas doesn't need to run all over the Buckeyes, but it has to run well enough to keep Patricia from making Manning and the passing game one-dimensional.
Texas will need to play balanced football to generate scoring opportunities against Patricia’s defense.
Advantage: Texas
Texas Defense vs. Ohio State Offense
Ohio State's passing game looked every bit as dangerous as advertised in Week 1. Julian Sayin completed 21 of 25 passes for 320 yards and three touchdowns, while Jeremiah Smith did his thing with eight catches for 151 yards and two scores. UTSA (go Roadrunners!) transfer Devin McCuin added 97 yards and a touchdown, giving Texas more to worry about than simply bracketing Smith. The Longhorn secondary held Texas State to 188 passing yards and forced two interceptions, but Jelani McDonald, Graceson Littleton and company face an entirely different challenge Saturday.
The matchup Texas should be able to exploit is up front. Colin Simmons and Lance Jackson headline a pass rush that now gets its chance to make Sayin uncomfortable after Ball State failed to seriously threaten him. Texas doesn't necessarily need sacks — but it does need to affect the pocket without constantly committing extra defenders. The fewer bodies Will Muschamp has to use to create pressure, the more help he can devote to keeping Smith from wrecking the game.
Ohio State can also run the football. The Buckeyes piled up 237 rushing yards at 6.8 yards per carry in Week 1, with Bo Jackson and Ja'Kobi Jackson each rushing for 83 yards and a touchdown. Bo is the proven threat after rushing for 1,090 yards as a freshman last season, and Texas can't allow Ohio State to establish him early and create favorable situations for Sayin. The Longhorns allowed 161 rushing yards to Texas State, albeit while in basic fronts. If Texas can hold up against the run with its front and let its edge rushers attack Sayin on obvious passing downs, that's where this defense can make life difficult for an otherwise loaded Ohio State offense.
Bottom line: Texas must contain all Jacksons, Julians, and Jeremiahs.
Advantage: None
Coaching Matchup
Steve Sarkisian enters this one with something to prove against Ohio State. The Buckeyes have handed Texas two painful losses in a row over the last two seasons. The theme in both losses was the Longhorns failing to get enough out of their red-zone opportunities. That has to improve. Sark is now 48–20 at Texas with three consecutive double-digit-win seasons and two CFP appearances, but beating the nation's No. 1 team would be another significant step for a program trying to turn sustained contention into a championship.
On the other side, Ryan Day has Ohio State operating exactly where we've come to expect it: at the very top of college football. Day is a ridiculous 83–12 as the Buckeyes' head coach, has reached the CFP four times and won the 2024 national championship. That puts him squarely in the top tier of college football head coaches right now, alongside Kirby Smart and Curt Cignetti. He also enters Saturday 2–0 against Sark and Texas, with last year's defensive battle showing he's perfectly comfortable winning this matchup without turning it into a shootout. With both staffs now intimately familiar with one another, expect plenty of counters and adjustments from two of the top coaches in the sport.
Advantage: Ohio State
The Model
MATCHUP PROJECTION
Week 2 · Ohio State at Texas · September 12, 2026
The Model projects Texas by 1.4 points, virtually identical to the market line of Texas -1.5. The model therefore sees no meaningful ATS edge in either direction. Texas owns home-field advantage, but Ohio State enters Austin after an exceptionally efficient offensive performance in Week 1. With only one game of 2026 data available, the matchup analytics remain highly volatile.
Prediction
This is as tight as they come — a coin flip, a toss-up, whatever you want to call it. Ohio State is going to land some punches. There is simply too much talent on that offense to expect otherwise, Jeremiah Smith or not. But I like Texas' chances to generate pressure on Sayin, and I trust Muschamp to find answers as the game develops. The key will be keeping Ohio State from consistently running the football and forcing Sayin into situations where our guys can go hunting. My player to watch is Littleton — after his scoop ‘n score in the opener, I think he continues to make waves across college football with another standout performance.
On the other side, this feels like a big test for the Texas run game — and for the protection in general. We haven’t seen a consistently good push produce a reliable ground game since probably 2023. Thinking back to prior matchups with Ohio State and even Georgia, getting manhandled in the trenches has cost Texas those games. We simply must prove we have the toughness to compete at the highest level of the sport.
This one probably isn't comfortable at any point. Ohio State has the advantage in a couple of our matchup categories, our own model sees essentially nothing separating these teams, and we've seen the Buckeyes get the better of Texas twice in a row. I simply can’t unsee what happened in those prior meetings, and until I see Texas prove otherwise, I can’t pick against Ryan Day. I’m sticking with my preseason prediction.
Ohio State 24, Texas 20
Prove me wrong, Horns.
Hook ‘em
