Well, that was refreshing.
After the emotional toll of the last few weeks, Texas finally put together a relatively stress-free Saturday night, dismantling Mississippi State 31-3 at DKR. The Longhorns improved to 6-2 overall and 3-2 in SEC play, picking up their second consecutive victory and keeping their College Football Playoff hopes alive.
It wasn't a perfect performance, particularly on offense, but the defense was downright dominant. Texas held the Bulldogs to just 187 total yards(!), continually disrupted the backfield, and after the Big Man TD and unfortunate injury to MSU’s starting QB in that game, left no doubt to the outcome.
With November upon us, Texas is heading into a brutal closing stretch that will determine whether this season ends in disappointment or another playoff appearance. Three of the Longhorns' final four games are on the road, beginning with a trip to Columbia to face a Missouri team with plenty to play for itself.
The Tigers enter Saturday with an identical record as Texas at 6-2. Missouri bounced back from a blowout loss to Ole Miss with a relatively convincing 34-10 victory over Arkansas last weekend. Jamal Roberts has already surpassed 1,000 rushing yards this season, and he'll provide a serious test for a Texas rush defense that is the bedrock of this team. Ahmad Hardy has also returned to the lineup.
The game kicks off Saturday at 11:00 a.m. CST at Faurot Field in Columbia, Missouri, and will be televised on ESPN.
Texas is favored by 2.5 points, with the over/under set at 42.5. So according to the experts, we’re setting the stage for a low scoring, closely contested matchup between two teams fighting to keep their postseason dreams alive.
This is what November is all about!
Texas OFFENSE Vs. Missouri Defense
Well, so much for building on that offensive momentum.
Texas took care of business against Mississippi State, cruising to a 31-3 victory on Halloween night, but the offense didn't exactly inspire confidence. Despite putting 31 points on the board (well really 24 because of the defensive score), the Longhorns managed just 280 total yards, including an abysmal 60 yards rushing. The inconsistency that has plagued Texas all season was once again on full display. After the encouraging performance against Ole Miss, Saturday felt like a step backward.
Arch Manning had a good passing game, completing 16 of 20 throws for 220 yards and three touchdowns without no interceptions. He connected with Cam Coleman and Emmett Mosley V for explosive scoring plays, demonstrating that Texas still has plenty of weapons capable of changing a game in an instant. Unfortunately, the offensive line struggled mightily, allowing five sacks, while Raleek Brown managed just 30 yards on eight carries. After rushing for more than 200 yards against Ole Miss, the Horns failed to find much of anything on the ground against the Bulldogs.
Enter Missouri’s run defense.
The Tigers are allowing just 325.3 total yards and 18.4 points per game, with a particularly stout rushing defense surrendering only 98.4 yards per contest, good for 16th nationally. Mizzou also has some legitimate playmakers up front, including Daeden Hopkins, with seven sacks on the season, and DT Donta Simpson, one of the SEC's most disruptive interior pass rushers. Protecting Manning will be critical, especially after the offensive line's struggles last weekend.
There may be opportunities through the air, if Texas can take advantage. Missouri is allowing 226.9 passing yards per game, ranking just 92nd nationally, making its secondary considerably more vulnerable than its front seven. Texas has the receiving talent to exploit that weakness, particularly with Wingo and Mosley capable of creating explosive plays. But that won't matter much if Manning is constantly under pressure. The Longhorns must find enough success on early downs to keep Missouri from pinning its ears back and attacking obvious passing situations.
The biggest question is whether Texas can find some offensive balance against a quality SEC defense on the road. The explosive plays have been there, and Manning has shown signs of improvement, but this offense simply cannot continue relying on isolated moments of brilliance to overcome stalled drives and poor protection.
Texas has the weapons to move the football, but until the Longhorns prove they can consistently protect Manning and establish the run, it's difficult to give them the benefit of the doubt.
Advantage: Missouri
Texas Defense vs. Missouri Offense
After weeks of waiting for the disruptive plays to return, the Texas defense absolutely feasted on Mississippi State. The Longhorns held the Bulldogs to just 187 total yards and three points, allowing 2.8 yards per play. Texas recorded seven sacks, with Rasheem Biles leading the way with three and two forced fumbles, including one that Maraad Watson returned 61 yards for a touchdown. It was the kind of suffocating performance we've been waiting to see from this defense.
Through eight games, Texas is allowing just 17 points and 273 yards per game. The Longhorns have recorded 26 sacks and forced nine turnovers, while holding all five SEC opponents to season lows in yards per play. Whatever questions remain about the offense, Will Muschamp's defense has become the backbone of this team.
Missouri enters averaging 31.5 points and 425 yards per game. In the Tigers’ latest game with Arkansas, Jamal Roberts, rushed for 138 yards and has consistently demonstrated an ability to create yards after contact.
Missouri also has weapons through the air. Quarterback Austin Simmons has been effective when given time, with receiver Cayden Lee emerging as a reliable target. The Tigers aren't quite the explosive passing attack that Ole Miss was, but their balance makes them dangerous. If Texas commits too heavily to stopping Roberts, Missouri has the personnel to take advantage downfield.
That said, stopping the run has become a calling card for this Texas defense. The Longhorns should be capable of making life difficult for Roberts, particularly if Biles and the defensive front continue creating disruption in the backfield. The priority will be winning early downs, forcing Simmons into predictable passing situations, and avoiding the explosive plays that can quickly swing a road game.
This is a legitimate test for a Texas defense that has carried the team throughout much of the season. Missouri has the weapons to make things interesting, but the Longhorns have demonstrated they can control the line of scrimmage against quality competition. If that continues Saturday, Texas should have the upper hand.
Advantage: Texas
Coaching Matchup
Congrats to coach Sark on picking up his 100th career victory against Mississippi State last Saturday. However, the comfortable 31-3 final score doesn't tell the whole story. Texas once again struggled to establish the run, and the offensive line surrendered five sacks against a team the Longhorns should have dominated. Sark deserves credit for getting his team back on track with consecutive SEC victories, but the real test begins now. With three of the final four games away from DKR, he'll need to find a way to get more consistent offensive production while continuing to lean on Will Muschamp's outstanding defense.
Eli Drinkwitz is in his seventh season at Missouri and has quietly built one of the SEC's more consistent programs. The Tigers have gone 35-12 since the beginning of 2023, and Drink has been particularly successful at home, compiling a respectable 37-9 record at Faurot Field. Drink has built his program around physical football, a strong rushing attack, and disciplined defense, and his teams have proven especially difficult to beat in Columbia.
The fascinating part of this matchup is the contrast in coaching styles. Sark is the (supposed) offensive guru with the more talented roster, but his offense has struggled to find consistency. Drink has built a physical, balanced team that can lean on its rushing attack and control the game. Texas has the higher ceiling, but Missouri this season has been a bit more consistent week-to-week. Sark has considerably more experience on the national stage, but with both teams fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive, this feels like an evenly matched coaching battle.
Advantage: None
The Model
MATCHUP PROJECTION
Week 10 · November 7, 2026
The Model projects Texas by 5.5 points on the road, compared with the market line of Texas -2.5, creating a 3-point edge toward the Longhorns against the spread. Missouri holds the stronger overall cumulative net PPA profile and narrowly leads in passing and rushing efficiency. However, Texas owns the clearer advantages in rushing consistency and finishing drives. The Longhorns rank 18th nationally in net rushing success rate, compared with Missouri at 95th. Texas also ranks 3rd in finishing drives against Missouri's 49th. The matchup is closer than Texas' last game, but the model still favors the Longhorns to win and cover in Columbia.
Prediction
Now begins the real grinder in the schedule, the time when seasons are made or broken.
Though battered and bruised, I do believe the Horns are capable of staying focused and preparing a quality game plan for this road trip. If we’re being honest, they really can do no worse than 1-1 in this next two week stretch. And it’d be nice to get the win now. Don’t want to be relying on a trip to Death Valley with our season on the line.
For everything the Longhorns have been this season, they’ve gotten the job done against ranked opponents. They’ve risen to the occasion when needed. I’m asking for one more in Columbia on Saturday. Just deliver a clean, ball control game and I think the team in white has got the goods.
Defense. Travels.
Texas 20, Missouri 17
Hook ‘em
