The BOK Model sees a substantial talent and efficiency advantage for Texas across the board. The Longhorns enter Week 1 with major advantages in overall power rating, preseason SP+, roster talent and returning production, producing a projected 31-point victory at DKR.

Texas State brings enough offensive ability to test the Longhorn defense, but the model expects Texas' depth and talent advantage to take over as the game progresses. The BOK Model makes Texas a 30.5-point favorite with a 96% chance to open the season 1–0.